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Short of that, it seems outright cheating to harass customers who take earnings. They don't kick you out. They say, "You're play is a little too strong for us.
Would you mind trying some of our other games? Casinos do have the right to not let you play a certain game.
Not sure I understand why. I was playing craps once. Got on a hot streak and was apparently making "oddly successful bets at suspicious intervals" after I got drunk and was talking to someone saying I'm an actuary.
They overheard and deemed that I had a substantial advantage in a statistics based game. Didn't want any trouble. So I walked three minutes to the next casino and continued playing.
No skin off my back haha. Private businesses, for better or for worse, have the right to refuse service to anyone. So casinos can and will use that as a means to remove customers that are losing then money instead of making them money.
Advantage play is a very real thing and goes far beyond counting cards. I've made a bit of money playing part time myself, and I know several people who make a full time living at it.
Vegas is the best place due to the sheer volume of both large resorts and small local casino's, but there are certainly opportunities all over the country.
Most advantage players I know do it part time as a profitable hobby. Career players are generally based out of Vegas, but there's other's who will road trip across the country to several casinos.
Depends what you're playing. Blackjack wise, Harrah's Philadelphia and Parx have good rules, 3: Also, find the games with the lowest house advantage and avoid games such as roulette.
The "smartest" thing the casinos did, was to install the last number display showing the 10 or so last numbers on the roulette table.
Made people think they could deduct what the next number would be, disregarding the fact that each spin is an independent event and have no relations to previous numbers.
ELI5 why you should avoid the roulette table as opposed to other casino games. I always thought that roulette gave the best odds on the floor.
Roulette has a 5. Keno and lotteries are worse, but Roulette is definitely bad. So yes, you'll still lose your bankroll eventually, but it will take longer, you can have free drinks, and enjoy making decisions beyond "red" or "black".
This presumes the "normal" 3: Avoid any game where a blackjack only pays 6: It gives the highest odds. But the odds they pay out are smaller than the actual odds you're facing.
On a double-zero wheel, there are 38 numbers to choose from, so the true odds are That's called the "house advantage," "house percentage," "vigorish," "vig," or "PC.
Other games have similar built-in house advantages. The lowest without counting cards is playing Craps with a very high limit on making "odds" bets, on which there is no house advantage.
You only pay the PC on the line bet you have to make to be allowed to make an odds bet; it has about a 1.
Basic strategy at a typical blackjack game has a house advantage of about 0. Of course, if you have no strategy you'll be giving them way more than 0.
So Roulette is really, really bad, especially since there's no way to mitigate it, but still isn't the worst. Examples here if you're still awake.
The average player won't play perfect strategy on blackjack and the rtp will fall to low to mid 90s. The best odds on the floor are baccarat and craps.
Counting cards can bring blackjack close to those. Don't Pass line with max odds. I can stand at a craps table for hours and hours making that bet.
It's not so much should avoid as knowing what you want and like to do. Slots and roulette should all be avoided if you only care about making money, while poker is something different.
Or try to, casinos mostly don't make money on poker and try to hide their poker room while using it as a way to get people in the casino playing other games.
Imagine it like "Magic" or any other similar card game except you get to pick the cards in your deck for free by deciding which starting hands you will play and how to play them this is your "Range" , and adjust in real time depending on what other people's "decks" are like.
Meanwhile a significant number of players called "Fish" are purely there to gamble and treat it like any other slot machine or roulette table.
A slot machine is inherently designed to be EV- to make the casino money, and same with roulette. So with those games you're like the poor guy offering the crazy coin flip we talked about, destined to lose money in the long run.
If the table has a single 0, the house advantage is 2. You can see the list of casino games and their house advantages here. There are worse games as you can see but roulette is pretty fucking bad and at least walk away from the double-0 tables!
Good conservative strategy can certainly overcome the rake and give a sharp player a consistent advantage.
Playing like that is rather boring though, which is why pro players call it the grind. To each their own.
A lot of people really enjoy the game. It's just a hobby of mine, not a full time thing. Christ man, you can't call yourself a poker player and then have that reference fly over your head.
I really wouldn't call myself an avid poker player anymore, I've moved onto other plays. But you have seen Rounders and just weren't paying that much attention to the comment right?
Blackjack is the best game to play, following the strategy mentioned elsewhere here in the comments. Of course, in an actual casino, there are often people playing rather stupid so the house edge increases significantly.
You're too good at this. Plus you get a couple hours for the money and don't just go bust in 15 mins. Does a much better job of telling the story and giving a bit more detail on the processes they used.
Interesting range of perspectives included via interviews by the author of certain people in Vegas. Post movie is titled as above.
Pre movie is Bringing Down the House: I read the book, and it was really interesting. It wasn't as dramatic as the movie where they were chased by security and beat up in the back room, but there was a time in Atlantic city where the group was nearly arrested and beaten up by a sheriff.
There was no drama of getting kicked out of MIT or having all your money stolen. As someone who was a professional player a few years ago, 21 does not accurately portray card counting.
It's a bit too Hollywood. I happened to just watch this as well Really could've been something with the better actors and better pace. I enjoyed it too, don't feel weird to enjoy something.
You are who you are because of your weirdness, embrace it. Apparently the book was so "loosely" based on real events that it was reclassified out of being "non fiction ".
The movie is awful but the book was fantastic! I read the book that's based on Bringing Down the House several years ago. It's a quality read from the same author who wrote Accidental Billionaires which was what The Social Network was adapted from.
If you're interested in this, check out the Carnegie Mellon poker playing robot. It beats even the best poker players.
It was also a "statistical" win only. Iirc, it actually lost slightly more hands than it won. It took me less than 30 seconds to realise this is unwatchable.
Might be some interesting content in there but I'll never know. The best craps strategy no question. Unfortunately there's still a house advantage, albeit very small: Take a virtual magic carpet ride into a mystical land complete with scatters, wilds and all kinds of ways to win.
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Online Casino Bonuses Find the best online casino bonuses offered on the internet for blackjack , roulette or more! The entire point of my post was that you can't claim Vegas's attractions don't count as cultural just because you don't like them.
Vegas has plenty of great food, but the Portuguese egg tarts are hard to come by: I would also think there are far fewer gambling regulations in Macau than in the US.
Vegas casinos could be making a lot more money than they already are but there are numerous laws and taxes restricting how much they can make.
They just don't a give a shit about environmental regulations, and paying people well so they save money that way. Im sure its the same with gambling in terms of regulation.
I think you don't understand the definition of the word. It isn't limited to natural beauty. Nobody, and let me reiterate here as strongly as possible That is not what sightseeing means.
That may be what it means to you, but that's not what it means to the rest of the world. Are you somehow confused as to what "sights" are?
Have you mistaken them for "sites? Going to see the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia counts as sightseeing.
That's not beautiful, it's just interesting because it's historic. Sightseeing has nothing to do with beauty. Why are you being so strong about this when you're completely wrong.
It's also easy to call Lake Las Vegas beautiful. People come from all over the country to see the The Hoover Dam because it's one of the most impressive feats of technology in our country.
All o these are within 20 minutes of the Strip. So just because you're too ignorant to look outside of the strip doesn't mean everyone else is. Las Vegas is exactly what you make it, if you go and sit on your ass in your hotel room all day then lose bucks at the tables at night, rinse, repeat, then your gunna have a bad time.
But if you fully take in All of what it has to offer I think you wouldn't feel this way anymore. There is no one on staff, a significant portion of the machines don't work and the phone number to call for service is not working….
Yes and yes and I agree with epik. Las Vegas is the dumbo destination of the world. I will never return to this piece of shit city.
Lmao you're "very well off" and couldn't find pleasure in any of the cirque du soleil shows, any of the amazing singers, any of the amazing comedians, and of the magic acts, any gambling, any booze, any of the world-renowned restaurants, any of the museums, or anything in Vegas at all?
Either 1 you're lying and pathetic for lying or 2 you're telling the truth and pathetic for being such a bore. Yes, it's one of the most marketed places on the planet and there is certainly fun to be had but there's no question that it's overrated with its shitty "what happens in vegas stays in vegas" tagline.
Once upon a time it was one of the best party places in the world but the world has moved on. I'm well off and only the comedians, museuems, restaurants and booze sound interesting to me, I could do that many places, New York for one.
The rest of that shit sounds corny as hell. It's not Vegan like the people who don't eat meat, it's Vey-gan like an extension of the word Las Vegas.
I think it's better than some stupid names What about the guys getting fed to the Komodo dragons? That would surely be entertaining to watch!
There are plenty of tourist sites in Macau for sightseeing. Not as many shows as in Vegas though. Some of the casinos in macau even have a full time staff of hookers to send up to guests rooms when they request.
It is just something that is never talked about as prostitution is a big taboo in chinese soceity but yet no one will dare make it illegal in macau.
It is all about keeping good moral face in public and then doing whatever the fuck you want in private. I'm going to vegas this weekend for a bachelor party.
I can't wait to try and help them become number one by losing everything. He said grey GDP. Not sure if it's true but I wouldn't put it past China to have the largest amount of nefarious shit going on.
I know, but the amount of sketchy money isn't nearly as large as legit money. There is a large amount of nefarious shit going on in US casinos too.
The Chinese authorities also know that a lot of people are going to try and use Macau. I'm macanese and the taxies don't really scam people.
They can't operate without those meters. Sorry not sure I understand. The traditional Portuguese paving in Senado Square looks pretty nice Vegas isn't just about the gambling.
It's about the legal prostitution and the drinking and partying and shows and going to the Pawn Stars building and checking out Fallout: A lot of people outside of vegas don't understand how all those atmosphere models and whatnot ply their trade with impunity.
In response to a statement that people go to Vegas for, among other things, prostitution, he replied with the legality even though that isn't relevant.
It's really hard to play that game in vegas. Actually, that varies according to county law. In some counties, brothels are legal.
Las Vegas is within Clark County, in which prostitution is illegal. So don't spread lies. Under Nevada state law, any county with a population under ,, as of the last decennial census, is allowed to license brothels if it so chooses.
Because gambling is heavily regulated in the US. Las Vegas is moving away from making money from gambling and making money from everything else.
Gambling is just one of the attractions. I think it has to do less with regulation and more with lack of interest in gambling with the younger generations, of which we have dayclubs, nightclubs, entertainment shows, dining, etc becoming the main focus to cater to their interests.
I've been to plenty of casinos in the US. No one has asked where I got my money, where I was from and the ATM has never stopped anyone from getting a cash advance on their credit card.
Casinos in the US have to pay out a certain amount on machine games and have restrictions on rakes.
It varies from state to state, but the nature of the games is heavily regulated. When opening a roulette table, they have to physically measure it to ensure that it's level.
If a card is accidentally left out of a blackjack shoe, the house will be fined for it, and they will have to find everybody that they can that played at that table and refund them their money, at least in my state.
Make no mistake, the government wants to make sure you're pissing the money away in a fair and honest manner. How crazy is it that BusinessInsider wrote an article based solely on pictures pulled from flickr Macau is a nice place, just too many mainland chinese tourists and no culture and personality other than the Portuguese influence and the worlds biggest bunjee jump.
This image may update when more data is available. Please note that this data represents what was observed by this bot via the reddit api and is in no way 'official'.
It is entirely possible to spend a week in the Venetian Macau and not leave have time to leave the building.
Like many have mentioned, even though Macau has some insane stuff, it still wont beat Vegas. Because Vegas has been shaped and tuned over decades, which have turned it into almost a magical gambling city.
Macau, while its still pretty damn awesome, is more like "Lets throw everything we've got at em" kind of mood. So if I got to chose, Vegas would still be where I'd go Bitches please, the really rich gamble on Wall Street.
Everything else looks like your grandpas poker game. And the worlds largest second casino is in no other than Thackerville, Oklahoma.
They are near the Texas border though. Air Koryo the North Korean airline has had scheduled service to Macau for many years, since the s or s at least.
This has never made sense to me, but now I'm wondering if NK is running a lot of those casinos to bring in money.
Have read somewhere that Stanley Ho has a stake in a North Korean casino. Yes, there are casinos in North Korea, for turists.
You learn something new every day; what did you learn today? Posting rules Submissions must be verifiable.
Rephrase your post title if the following are not met: Titles must begin with "TILI enjoy talking to the other players, commiserating with them when the dealer draws a blackjack, celebrate a win, etc. Basic strategy at a typical blackjack game has a house advantage of about 0. Posted by Seth Theobeau at 7: Perhaps one of the easiest things to do in online gambling is to play at casinos that offer you all the bells and whistles without any of the hard work and hassle. Any brigading or continual harassment of one user against another may result in a ban. Yes and yes and I agree with epik. In the chart and summary below, avoiding commission is confirmed as the Play Blackjack at 35,000ft!!!! | Casino.com way to tackle baccarat, as long as target betting is the primary ingredient. I thought it was only for geniuses with photographic memories and the likes. On our site, Beste Spielothek in Bannerod finden can find casino bonuses and games corresponding to their needs. There is Beste Spielothek in Frankenhain finden one on staff, a clickdirectpay portion of the machines don't work and the phone number to call for service is not working…. Do the other thing, Beste Spielothek in Germershausen finden dry wells will far outnumber "wet" ones. Even the house does not have one of joker millions. But let's face it, gambling is for suckers! Weitere Besonderheit ist hier die Card Charlie Regel. Die beste Strategie ist, die ursprünglichen Hände 10 und 19 zu behalten und nicht zu tauschen. Das ist heute nicht mehr selbstverständlich — und auch nicht zwingend notwendig. Betrachten wir als erstes den Wert Ihrer Karten: Auch klassische Casino Spiele wie Roulette sind zahlreich vertreten. Beste Spielothek in Trauen finden Sie auch die exklusiven Bonusofferten, die Sie nutzen können, wenn Sie sich torwart argentinien.
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Target betting spreading wide needed only 4, Baccarat is a frustrating game because somehow it is far "streakier" than blackjack.
And since backing Banker is a bad idea because of the payout on wins, I find it about as much fun as watching a deep puddle evaporate on a cloudy day!
With the rules fully intact, target betting handily beat a 1. As we know, the target strategy bets more but less often.
And the wiggle room it gets from its wide spread wraps up series faster. There was just one "bust" with all the rules in place, and next time I will post charts that again raise the critical question, Would a sentient being stand or sit still for a beating this bad?
Here are the relevant summaries, "tight" first, then "wide. Click on an image to enlarge it The experts who deny that the house advantage is vulnerable in the long term reject any data that indicate to the contrary, and these will be no exception.
Analysis of past outcomes the only analysis that is possible! That is why I recommend to anyone who wants to learn how to win that they apply target betting's rules to real-time play as soon as possible, preferably without risking any money until they know what they are doing.
Reality contradicts theory and analysis all the time, but that is in target betting's favor actual conditions are almost invariably easier to handle than situations in which intuition and experience cannot be applied.
For example, table limits and the need to disguise the betting method from prying eyes make prolonged negative trends far less likely.
And EOS bets have to be rounded up in real play, sometimes increasing exposure for a while, but always resulting in greater overall profits.
The summaries above all reflect the application of a rule requiring that an EOS bet cannot be less than the value of the successful bet that preceded it.
In real play, that would be optional. One thing you can take to the bank is that if the house edge was truly invulnerable, all of the results posted in this blog would be flat-out impossible.
They are real and accurate because winning more when you win than you lose when you lose is the only antidote to the house advantage. Sunday, April 26, Back to blackjack, and more of the same old same old.
It's a good thing that winning consistently never gets old even if it's not real money! They determined that however much a player may bet, over time he is sure to fall prey to the house advantage in games of chance, and they never felt the need to add as long as he bets randomly, or bets the same amount each time because that's the way at least Formulas that support the axiom that any amount bet against a negative expectation must ultimately have a negative result can run to several pages, and are impressive to behold.
But they don't mean a thing when it comes to target betting. The formula that supports the concept that if you win more when you win than you lose when you lose, then losing more often than you win won't hurt you fills barely half a line.
And it is as true as some ancient axiom that seems to hand the gambling industry guaranteed profits from any player who does not break the mold and quit permanently as soon as he gets ahead.
Bet smart, and you will beat the house. Bet like almost everybody else, and you won't. And that's the name of that tune, as my former friend Robert Blake used to say.
Here's the latest BST blackjack sample hardly new, since I haven't played a round in almost two weeks, but hey, I've been busy! Posted by Seth Theobeau at 2: Tuesday, April 21, If you bet larger sums, you will end up with more action, greater risk, and a bigger loss overall.
Table and house limits are often touted as a way for a casino to reduce its exposure and avoid having to pay out too much if a high-roller gets lucky.
In fact, tight spreads are more often imposed by players upon themselves than by a casino seeking to limit its losses. And only a self-styled expert who has not bothered to study the numbers would dare to pretend that spread limits are really intended as a defense against big-money players.
The math demonstrates with absolute finality that limits are a weapon that the gambling industry uses against everybody! Worse news than that is that at least Most players bring their own means of destruction with them every time they play, and eliminate themselves from the game long before they can be a threat to the house's bottom line.
Tight spreads can only win on those rare occasions when a player makes more right bets than wrong ones. And thanks to the house advantage, that doesn't happen often.
The purpose of this post is to examine the wisdom of the linchpin of the academic argument against any and all betting strategies, which is a rejection of analysis of past outcomes, however large the sample.
Only in the field of gambling mathematics are we required to accept that what's past has nothing whatever to teach us about the present or the future.
And it is, of course, a wholly unscientific and illogical premise. We are told that gambling outcomes are so unpredictable and erratic, so totally devoid of patterns or trends that are likely to be repeated at any time in the future, that they have an almost magical, mythical quality one that has led me to make frequent references to myth ematics!
If casino table games were as inconsistent and unreliable as academics the Math Mob, or You Can't Win Brigade would have us believe, they would be profitable only in the very long term.
And anyone who knows anything at all about gambling knows that against random or fixed-bet punters, the house makes short-term gains as a matter of routine.
The gambling industry exploits the fact that it is not just players who are predictable, but the games themselves. The only uncertainty is the outcome of the very next bet.
But analyzed in groups, from a handful no pun intended to dozens and scores, then hundreds and multiple thousands, outcome patterns are considerably more reliable than the weather.
Imposing narrow betting spreads increases the mathematical reliability of the house advantage. Widening spreads does the opposite, just as logic would suggest.
The catch is that the gambling industry and its house-trained numbers experts do not want us to even take a glancing look at the past, let alone learn from it.
And for some reason, intelligent people who really should know better are happy to accept that gambling is only about the future, and an uncertain one at that.
For many gamblers, not knowing is where the excitement lies, and that is why the best betting strategy in the world will never be a serious threat to the casino business.
One assumption most gamblers make, even those with fat bankrolls and a proportionately greater prospect of profit, is that higher bets and wider spreads must always lead to greater risk and, in the end, bigger losses.
And that simply is not true. It is not possible to use spreadsheets and formulas to model the behavior of a random bettor because imposing order as a simulation must is the antithesis of a haphazard gambler's path to ruin.
But it is possible to clamp down on table limits and examine the effect of restrictions that players as a whole impose on themselves, either out of ignorance or because their bankrolls are woefully inadequate.
In one simple test, I eliminated most of the target betting switches that I recommend in the rules, "playing" a streamlined version of the strategy.
Any player who does not exploit winning streaks, rare as they are, is missing a critical opportunity and probably deserves to lose!
The gross HA was 4. The problem is of course that the quicker you bump up against your "green ceiling," the less likely you are to win in the end because at that point you are totally at the mercy of the house edge.
Overall action was higher with the wider spread, as expected. I will have baccarat comparisons soon, but here are more detailed summaries of the blackjack results.
First the "tight" application of limits, then the "wide" one. Click on an image to enlarge it Runaway sims produce meaningless, deliberately disingenuous results because they assume absolute inertia on the part of a player under pressure.
To some extent, the same problems plague my spreadsheet models, even though the outcomes that they analyze are derived from "real" play.
The odds can also be said to be that the win-loss pattern will improve if you stay where you are. But smart gambling has to be about a "better safe than sorry" approach.
With target betting, all you are looking for by way of a more "friendly" environment after a bail-out is two consecutive wins, and often, a single win will save the series.
For the random bettor, it may be statistically a wash, because a player who is, say, five bets behind will often need an equal swing in the opposite direction to get out of the hole.
The whole point of target betting is to win more in fewer bets than you lost in a greater number of bets. Here's how target betting did against the same set of blackjack outcomes with the rules fully deployed: The "tight spread" reading was 6.
At the point when the most money was at risk, the method had already more than doubled the bankroll.
Watch this space for the same rules set applied against first the "LR" baccarat outcomes, then the much larger "LJ" sample the initials indicate the verifiable sources of both data sets.
Lastly, my answer to the question, Why are you posting all this information? Are you looking for big-money backers, or what? This blog is intended primarily as an information resource for players who genuinely want to learn how to beat the house at its own games by overcoming the effects of the house advantage.
Secondly, it is a record of the work I have done down the years, serving as proof that my research is both unique and meticulous.
I went the backer route years ago. Both "money men" were good company and fun to work with, to a point. But both of them had far less hard cash at their disposal than they claimed when they initially contacted me, and both sought to undermine the principles of target betting to as they wrongly saw it minimize their exposure.
Caution and restraint have their place in gambling, but generally they work more in the house's favor than the player's.
My early backers were, like most gamblers, looking for quick profits for minimal risk, and I had to tell them that they were deluding themselves.
The analogy I used was an oil-drilling survey of a gigantic field that showed that Target betting's backers wanted to keep drilling ft wells all over the place, hoping for a brief gusher, because digging deeper costs a lot more money before the big payday.
Drill deep, and you will have profits forever. Do the other thing, and dry wells will far outnumber "wet" ones. And even the mini-gushers will soon dribble away.
Remember, it takes money to get money. And knowledge and experience, discipline and commitment are a big help, too. Sunday, April 19, "The trap you have sprung on yourself is classic!
You have taken just one set of outcomes and fiddled and faked until you found a way to beat them. There would be no sense in that. But that is hardly an adequate defense since the mythematicians who take occasional pot-shots at target betting say there is no sense in any of my ideas!
All I can do is repeat my offer to discuss my methodology and provide details of all my results to anyone without a transparent pro-casino agenda.
That would enable a rigorous scrutiny of how I have managed to accurately and honestly end up with data that are diametrically in conflict with negative expectation, otherwise known as the conventional wisdom.
I have always been aware of the risk of inadvertently manipulating an existing data set until it gives me the results that I want, and that is why I place great importance in the ongoing blackjack trial that has been the subject of most of the posts on this blog and will be covered in many more.
It's not that I have "massaged" anything, but simply that I am aware of the pitfalls that have tripped others who have tried to beat games of chance.
I work constantly to avoid the traps, and can disprove any observer's perception that I might be deluding myself.
Blackjack is, in my experience, the best of all the house games for target betting, because of its minimal house edge when disciplined rules of play are applied.
It is also one of the few popular table games in which player decisions can affect the outcome of a wager pai-gow and 3-card poker can be disregarded because they do not offer an option to draw additional or substitute cards and change a hand.
In most games, you bet, and then you wait. Blackjack requires that you play a greater role in the process than just pushing out a pile of chips and crossing your fingers.
The honest truth is that the results you see in this blog are supposed to be impossible. Words like anecdotal and subjective and non-representative are routinely bandied about by people who sometimes see themselves as "systems debunkers," out so save the world from snake-oil salesmen and other shameless charlatans.
The honest truth is that the house advantage is only unbeatable if gamblers bet the way the house wants them to, randomly, emotionally, erratically and irrationally.
Stop gambling and start playing to win, and the house is in trouble. I made one little error in the previous post which I'm going to 'fess up to here to show readers how honest I am.
I said that target betting versus the baccarat data set had resulted in FIVE busts in 55, recoveries, for a win rate of Truth is that combining Player-only and Banker-plays plays, there was ONE bust in more than , recoveries, for a rather more encouraging win rate of Then along came the Wobble set, which on its own had FIVE busts in 57, not 36, recoveries, dropping its WR all the way down to I posted the pattern charts for four of the five WBL crash n burns, and suggested that in real play, target betting rules would have required the player to bail out of each of those cliff-drop sequences before serious damage could be done.
The fifth "worst case scenario" is attached to this entry. Combining PO, BO and WBL into a theoretical team-play result that would have required three guys to sit side by side for three years and bet 4, shoes three different ways would have seen SIX busts in , recoveries.
That's a WR of There is only one option in a casino that makes that promise: As for the fiddling and faking charge I quoted, there is only one fundamental target betting rule, and that is that after one or more losing bets, followed by a win, the next bet NB must be increased to cover the loss to date LTD plus the pre-set win target.
So the charge that I have been twiddling and tweaking for years to defeat a unique sample of outcomes is false, as is the claim that the house edge is unbeatable.
The baccarat data set came to me independently from Lee Jones and Lorenzo Rodriguez long after the principles of target betting also known as Turnaround were published on the Internet in The win is more than 5.
There have been 14, recoveries so far, for an average EOS of 5. The expected result ER given negative expectation of Using the net HA What we see from both trials is that it is not only possible to win more when you win than you lose when you lose, but absolutely necessary.
Over the years, I have dealt with gambling experts who look at my results, back off from insisting that they are either fraudulent or impossible, and focus instead on the size of the bets required.
All I can say to that is that I never expected to be able to discover a betting strategy that could turn a shoestring bankroll into a fat wad of cash.
I have never pretended that target betting is easy or cheap, just that it enables a disciplined player to win consistently, making a steady profit over the long haul.
Money alone is not enough to beat the house. Countless former millionaires who went broke trying can testify to that. But together, money and target betting make a very powerful antidote to the house edge.
Here are more nails in the coffin of the house advantage. The red numbers, rare as they are, show that once in a very great while, target betting can get into trouble.
Click on an image to enlarge it The question is, does the strategy win often enough to recover those occasional busts and get back on the road to overall profit?
The answer is clear. Even with five busts in the WBL run-through, target betting was able to win back each loss before ending up with a result that was slightly better than a break-even.
I have included the WBL data even though it is clear to me that betting that way to offset the commission gouge may not be a good idea. I believe that WBL may be a viable way to go if the player is alert and sensible, like a human being should be.
But I can't prove it, so I have to let my readers judge for themselves. It would be great to win all the time, but the gambling industry would hate us for it.
So how about a We have already seen that backing Player only against the same data set, avoiding commission entirely, would have been very profitable using the target betting technique.
So how about "the Wobble," my Americanized name for a bet-selection method the French call avant dernier thanks, Google , for helping me discover the correct word order and spelling for "before last" en Francais?
The idea is that you catch streaks either way in baccarat or roulette by betting on whichever even-money option came up in the hand or spin before the last won, so P,P would call for a bet on Player, and B,R would indicate a bet on black.
It's not a bad way to go, because there is nothing more frustrating than zigging when the shoe or wheel zags or vice versa! Given a six-bet Player streak at baccarat that was preceded by P,B you will catch 5 of 6 wins, or 4 of 6 if the streak was preceded by B,B.
Being right two-thirds of the time is certainly better than missing every switch in the kind of ping-pong pattern that is common in both baccarat and roulette.
Wobble comes from win before last WBL , and it is a useful escape from brain strain for those players who need a break from blackjack or horrors!
I now accept that that was probably a mistake. It is certainly true that when Player is getting hammered for hand after hand, the voice in my ear that whispers "just bet Banker" gets louder and louder until the only alternative is to stand up and walk away from the game.
Click on the image to enlarge it When I first posted my ideas on an Internet gambling forum a dozen years ago, target betting was quite a bit more complicated than it is today and I was repeatedly "flamed" such a '90s term!
Damage control is a non-viable concept, said the experts, because no one can ever know if backing away from a downturn will be jumping from the frying pan into the fire, or if the negative trend would have reversed itself if the evasion tactic had been ignored.
Overall, they say, it's a wash: The "experts," I want you to know, are full of it. For a fixed-bet or random player, they may actually be right.
But for a target bettor a progression player is another way to describe him they have it all wrong. Take another look at the fatal four-pack above.
The experts tell us that when a prolonged spike in the house's favor occurs, pushing the HA far beyond standard negative expectation for the game, there is no reason to hope that it will be substantively offset in time to enable recovery of prior losses.
Again, that may or may not be true for a random punter. But for a player who can get out of the hole with two consecutive wins, and more than half the time can make a profit with just ONE win, ducking a potentially deadly downturn will prove right far more often than not.
Each of the killer streaks above was followed by offsets that would have handed target betting a turnaround in a heartbeat. They just didn't come soon enough for the robot player who opted to keep taking punches on the nose instead of picking up his chips and walking away.
Runaway sims "beat" any betting method ever devised by requiring the preposterous assumption that a player would not respond to a downturn like the ones you see above.
He would just keep on betting until his bankroll ran out. Common sense does not support that conceit any more than science does. Because of spread limits and the constant need to maintain a low profile to avoid casino interference with a winning method, a target player does not have to trust his own judgment to figure out the right time to bail out of a downturn.
The strategy rules do the job for him. I recommend a spread limit in any one location, except at an opening layout one where you started with a minimum bet , where is probably OK.
The fatal series in 13 began with seven consecutive losses, and a move would have come before the 11th bet at In 20, we would probably have been out at after four consecutive opening wins, and certainly after the next loss Finally, 23's black hole would have ended after at most seven bets at Applying those strict rules would of course have affected countless other series and required a whole lot of healthy exercise and worn out shoe leather.
And let's face it, probability is what gambling in a casino is all about. You have to know the numbers, and how to exploit them for consistent profit.
Usually, I figure at least a This time, the strategy delivered Target betting's performance betting the Wobble against the baccarat data set was ONE loss in 10, series about 55, bets!
OK, it's a trick question, because of course target betting will lose as many individual bets as any other method.
The house advantage will see to that. The 1 loss in 55, rounds is not just a loss, it is ruin, crash and burn, wipe-out or whatever else you might choose to call it.
What matters is that with target betting, more lost bets than won bets will not result in an overall loss of money The reverse, in fact.
Except once in 55, rounds IF you are dumb enough to sit still and suck it up when the house edge goes haywire. Here are the data for the WBL "skim" run-through: Saturday, April 18, Math orders the universe, so you can be sure it won't wait outside while you are betting the farm in a casino.
So most people don't bother to try. The logic goes pretty much like this: Here is an example of what you can expect in, say, three years of playing baccarat for five hours a day, five days a week: What happened in the scenario above was that bet values were in effect randomly selected, and the "Banker edge" was simply not enough to offset the 5.
Winning more often than you lose is a rare privilege in a casino, especially after sitting through more than , wagers!
Now let's try the same scenario with target betting applied at every step to ensure that sing along with me you win more when you win than you lose when you lose.
Note the two numbers after Banker edge, above. The first is the actual value AV derived from dividing the difference between the greater number of wins and the lesser number of losses by the total number of outcomes.
The second is money won minus money lost divided by overall action. That is target betting's sole objective.
The bottom line was a healthy positive number in the second scenario because although the total bets won as opposed to the total money won was the same in both examples, target betting won far more chips than haphazard wagering did, and lost fewer.
What we see here is discipline a PLAN! And I think we can agree that winning is better than losing. Here's how it looks: Field bets at craps can be lucrative, even-money bets at roulette too.
Even 3-card poker can boost your bankroll, if you ignore Pair-plus and halve your LTD before making a potential EOS bet ante the first half and bet the rest if you have a hand worth backing.
Friday, April 17, Gambling is not sensible, logical or rational. Mathematics is nothing but. So what am I trying to do here? Win sensibly, that's what!
I plowed into the problem well aware that every baccarat book ever written says the game cannot be beaten, and that no less a gambling luminary than Prof.
Thorp gave up trying way back in the s. I actually met the man at a backgammon bash in Pebble Beach, Calif. Pity it didn't work out for him First, a summary of the results achieved when what I now think of as "skim theory" is applied to the , baccarat outcomes mentioned in earlier posts.
Click on the image to enlarge it The highlighted columns contain results from individual data sets for Player only bets, Banker bets without the "skim" modification, and Banker bets with the anti-gouge LTD adjustment applied.
But I should be used to surprises by now: Academic mathematicians and others who oppose the idea that the house advantage in casino games of chance is vulnerable will reject these results.
That's their loss, because there is a lot they could learn here if they would only open their minds! They will doubtless argue that , outcomes is not a representative sample, or that I somehow managed to massage that huge data set until I came up with a rules combination that beat over 4, shoes of baccarat.
As always, my methodology has been scrupulously careful, fair and accurate. Any other approach to the challenge would be a waste of time and toil.
The bottom line here is that backing Banker all the way does not have to be a losing proposition in spite of the fact that every win pays less than even money.
My erstwhile baccarat buddy would probably tell me that this new approach is a no-brainer and that he does it already. But unless he has changed his ways in recent years, he doesn't and he won't.
His "method" is to apply target betting rules to a point, then abandon them at the time he needs them the most. And as a result, he is a certain long-term loser, with no hope of recovery.
The effect of the "skim" is that a recovery series continues until enough has been won to offset prior losses PLUS all commission due on winning bets throughout that series.
And the rules modification is greatly helped by the fact that over time, there will always be more wins for Banker than for Player betting under those conditions is a unique experience for me!
It sounds simple, if not simple-minded, but consistency is the key to beating the house advantage, and that is a very uncomplicated concept.
I'll get to that later And I don't doubt for a moment that even better results could be achieved by letting "The Math" identify a more efficient antidote to the gouge.
I don't want to get into that here because of the academic prohibition against "twiddling and tweaking.
That is one problem with a mathematically accurate, nit-picky approach: If your answer is No, as mine sure is, the next question that's begged is, Would it make any difference in the long run if you walked away from every egregious "house spike" in the hope of finding a friendlier WLP elsewhere?
The academic defenders of the status quo say no, absolutely not. But both mathematics and common sense say they are wrong when gambling is set aside and target betting replaces it in the equation.
For a fixed or random bettor there will often come a point where the hole he is in is too deep for the longest ladder in the form of a partial reversal of a negative trend.
Once he is 20 or 30 bets behind, as in the pattern depicted here, he's dead meat. But the target strategist is only seriously threatened when he reaches his maximum bet value, which has nothing to do with table limits and all to do with how much money he has behind him.
Until then, two wins in succession will get him out of the hole And more often than not, a single win will save his bacon. So while the mythematicians who manipulate arithmetic in the service of the gambling industry are not exactly telling a lie when they say you can't run away from bad luck, their "truth" does not apply to target betting.
I will be posting some more "over a cliff" sequences for your amusement from time to time. And I use the cliff analogy with good reason, recognizing that seeing into the future is a little easier on the road than it is in a casino.
Imagine that you are driving down a mountain road and you see a sharp curve coming up and what could be a 1,ft drop straight ahead.
Do you apply the brakes and turn the wheel, or do you keep going? And that takes me back to the heading at the top of this post. Mathematics is not disconnected from logic and good sense, however frustrating and impractical its precision may sometimes be.
Gambling, the way most punters interpret and apply it, is illogical, irrational, imprecise and ultimately chaotic and hopeless which is not to say that its practitioners do not keep doing the same things over and over again while hoping for a happier result!
Arithmetic can beat the house, as we see here. The runaway sims that mythematicians use to "prove" that the house edge is ultimately unbeatable rely on rare patterns like the one above to undo a betting method.
A car driven at high speed with the steering and brakes disabled will almost certainly crash and burn. A safety-conscious, sensible driver knows how to navigate the worst roads and weather conditions and get home or to the bank alive.
Which ride would you prefer? Posted by Seth Theobeau at 8: Wednesday, April 15, Strange to wake up in the morning and find your brain has been working on a problem while you slept!
But it is something of an experiment as I adjust to the process of allowing target betting to evolve day by day under public scrutiny. As I have said many times, baccarat has always seemed to me about as exciting as watching grass grow next to blackjack, but now and then I feel obligated to revisit the game because of its huge international status.
As I drifted off to sleep last night, I was noodling the notion that since Banker always wins more hands than Player over the long run, target betting should be able to exploit that advantage by compensating for "The Gouge.
My baccarat partner's long-ago suggestion that chips gobbled up by the gouge could be recovered with a post-EOS bet before NB reverts to the minimum did not at the time strike me as workable, and I still have my doubts.
The effect might be disastrous, pushing bet values and overall action into the stratosphere and risk along with them.
But because Banker always has a solid edge over Player, it might just work. The experimental aspect here is that I have never before speculated on the effectiveness of a modification ahead of actually applying it.
Given that I have , verifiable baccarat outcomes to work with, courtesy of Mr. Jones, I think it's worth the effort to give it a try. Once again, the spreadsheet platform rules!
Running the test will be straightforward enough, and of course I will post the results here as soon as I am done.
The hard part will be figuring out the conditional formula to make the test accurate and effective! Running queries for data on the effect of backing Player only, Banker only and WBL has in effect turned the Rodriguez and Jones combined data sets of , outcomes into a monster sample of ,, so it was well worth the effort.
Now the job's done, I am relieved to be able to confirm that there are no big surprises. Many baccarat veterans recommend ignoring the Player option entirely, and my test indicates that if winning more often than you lose floats your boat, then that is the way to go.
My baccarat buddy the one who suggested cranking up the EOS bet to recover commission fees after a recovery insisted from day one that the gouge or "vig" or whatever else it might be called was a non-issue.
I have known for a long time that target betting will prevail even if the outcome of individual rounds is reversed win to loss, red to black, odd to even or whatever but have never given it a whole lot of thought because blackjack does not offer that option.
It may be possible to apply the Wobble WBL or win before last method to 21, but I figure I have enough stuff to keep in my head when I am playing blackjack, and adding more might cause a gray-matter meltdown!
So, I have never tried it. And I am hoping that having said that, I won't be tempted to investigate further.
In the chart and summary below, avoiding commission is confirmed as the right way to tackle baccarat, as long as target betting is the primary ingredient.
I am still in touch with my former baccarat partner, who steadfastly refuses to do the smart thing and step up to blackjack, and he tells me that in Macao and other exotic gambling locations, commission has been replaced by a rule that gives the house a win on a tie.
That change might be better for target betting, but somehow I doubt it. Let's face it, casinos very rarely make rules changes that benefit the player!
One of these days I might be able to evaluate the switch, but I have never bothered to record ties, let alone recommend putting money on them, so that is not on my to-do list for the current decade at least.
To me, baccarat is like dancing in deep treacle compared to blackjack, but I know there are millions of aficionados out there and I recommend that they give disciplined target betting a try.
Here's the promised data Click on the image to enlarge it I get a kick out of the fact that, commission aside, target betting kicked butt three ways.
But I am not surprised. The method did encounter a "bust" backing Player only, and it is true to say that the crash 'n burn could have come along in the very first series.
However, given 55, successful recoveries and just one fatal downturn, we can conclude that "coulda, woulda, shoulda" the three most pointless words in the gambling glossary, do not apply here.
It makes more sense to speculate about what would have happened if the house spike that cost target betting a million bucks in funny-money had been subjected to the damage control that most players instinctively apply in various ways when the going gets extra tough.
It's moot in any case, because most players would prefer odds of 55, to 1 in their favor to odds of I am excluding those gamblers who bet as if losing is fun, of course!
Posted by Seth Theobeau at 9: Monday, April 13, Surprise, surprise! Rodriguez and Jones, and as I typed those words, I knew curiosity would make me run the query sooner rather than later.
Curiosity is really what got me into this in the first place: I couldn't believe that something protected by mathematics the house advantage at games of chance could not be as easily defeated by mathematics once the key was found.
Spreadsheet archives of large data sets make it relatively easy to revisit the past and apply a "what if? My critics say that constantly reworking old data is a sure sign that I am massaging and distorting the numbers to prop up my deranged dream of beating something that is unbeatable.
TIL that Las Vegas is a long way from being the gambling capital of the world - Macau's gambling revenue is a whopping 5 times larger businessinsider.
Having just been to both places Macau is way less cool than Vegas. Macau would probably be cool if you were crazy rich, but then Vegas would be too.
Yes, Macau is interesting to see but the casino sides are purely there for Gambling reasons. The entertainment factor is not there.
The casinos are far apart from each other and hard to get to from one another. The environment in Las Vegas is much more conducive to enjoying yourself.
I agree -- I too have been to both and thought Macau was a little seedy while Vegas was gloriously seedy. I live in Vegas and we all know that what we sell is entertainment, not gambling.
Gambling is a part of it, but we don't have eight stationary Cirque Du Soleil shows for gambling purposes. We don't have one of the most innovative urban projects in City Center for gambling purposes.
Reddit hates on Las Vegas disproportionately compared to the average person. Not sure of the reason, but people on reddit always rag on Las Vegas when it's sheer existence proves that it is a very fun place for a lot of different people.
The funny part is that I don't really like Las Vegas myself. Yeah, the weather is probably among the most predictable the world over.
We never have to worry about disasters like hurricanes, tornados, or freak blizzards. Other than that, it's kind of dismal here.
Our education system, one that I grew up learning from, has ranked among the 5 lowest in the country for far too long.
Our homeless problem is horrendous. We have some serious issues with health care, as most know on Reddit because of the stories of sending mental-healthcare patients out of state on buses.
We've been in a drought for longer than I've been alive. Then again, we entertain people more than almost any city. Conventions are held in Las Vegas because of the fact that people love coming here.
SEMA is one of the most talked about auto-shows in the world. We have some of the largest business conventions in the world here. Remember Obama making that statement that businesses shouldn't be making trips to Las Vegas?
Yeah, they do that because they sell here, not because they party here. Sure, night time they can have fun, but they don't bring their products here and sell nothing.
They set records here. Afaik, all the cities in the southwest deal with this problem by throwing tons of money at the problem.
You obviously don't live here and deal with the construction that never ends on our streets. Two lanes are closed on my daily commute, making it go from 15 minutes to over This will happen for the next weeks.
Oh, and by the way, look up the stories of all the homeless people living in our flood channels that go under the city. Then read the stories of them being washed out and killed every time we have rain.
Isn't it in a desert? I'm not sure if it counts as being in a drought when that's the natural state of the land. It is most definitely a drought.
Lake Mead was nice and full for quite some time after Hoover Dam was built. For the past years or so though the water levels have dropped considerably and marinas have had to be moved farther in because of it.
We are on restricted watering schedules and the government pays people to change their lawn from real grass to artificial turf or xeriscape desert landscaping.
So yeah, we're in a drought. You refer to Lake Mead like it used to be, a lake. It's now a white-rimmed pond that you can see the bottom of from an airplane.
If you haven't figured it out yet, you're not paying for the alcohol, you're paying for the experience. That is not unique to Vegas.
I've been to maccau and it may have more gambling, but it's casinos don't hold a candle to Vegas. Don't forget the worlds largest Ferris wheel they're building that you can see the second you one in from Boulder City.
That thing is massive. Yeah, none of us really care about it. Whatever it takes to get tourists to spend money though, pays for our public education system.
Amazing moves, hits, fights, and up tempo games without stoppages in play and commercials every couple minutes. Playoff hockey is the best playoffs in sports IMO.
The question is why wouldn't they bring a hockey team in for entertainment purposes? Same reason that no other money making professional sports dont make their home there, sports betting and ethics.
Then why do they keep making billions of dollars? It seems pretty clear that people love and watch hockey. There are a ton of people that go to Vegas and don't gamble.
A lot of the younger visitors go there for the nightclubs and parties. As a guy living in Las Vegas and studying Hospitality the second sentence is false.
Currently live in Vegas. Nobody calls it the gambling capital of the world because they know its not.
This is hardly new. Gambling isn't even as big revenue wise as entertainment is. The nightlife in Macau seemed very boring in comparison to Vegas.
There wasn't much to do in the day that I found at least , but the hotels in Macau are super awesome and everyone seems to pamper you there.
Most the people in Macau were definitely there to gamble and most the tables were way higher limits compared to Vegas.
Instead of beers and alcohol, they would be drinking warm water and teas etc. Huge difference to Vegas. Vegas in my opinion has way better dining and night life and much more to see in the day as well.
The atmosphere here is definitely more entertainment and enjoyment than gambling in comparison. As a Las Vegan who has had this conversation with every single self righteous know it all passing through my city I can tell you the Entertainment, Dining, Sight seeing, Night life, and overall atmosphere is much better than in Macau.
That's why it is still considered a more enticing tourist location than Macau. Macau puts up these absurd casino numbers because they're located in a part of the world where there are Hundreds of Millions of people who only want to gamble, nothing else, just pure gambling.
I deviated very slightly from basic blackjack strategy once at a table with an older asian lady at Mohegan Sun in Connecticut.
It was a good move, because the dealer ended up busting when she would have normally pulled out a 20 had I not hit. Even though it helped the entire table the woman flipped out on me and told me "I messed up the entire deck".
She was making such a scene that the pit boss came over and told her she was done for the night. You would think these people so well versed on basic strategy would understand the statistics behind the game.
There is literally nothing another player can do to statistically disadvantage you. Him or her hitting a dumb hand is just as likely to help you as hurt you statistically.
I ended up not playing anymore when I went to Vegas and started learning alllllllll the superstitious bullshit card game etiquette that upsets "serious" players.
I tend to be hypersensitive of people around me and I worried I was being rude or throwing off some guys gambling chi, to the point I was afraid to play.
Best advice is to ignore other people's bullshit and enjoy yourself. This is entertainment, not an investment. What's your opinion on this.
Lets assume its not busy, the table has two other people at it, but not full. So I'm playing blackjack and I decide to stop and just watch a few hands.
Sip my drink and just spectate. Now there's still seats available and even I tend to tip my dealer every three or so wins. After a few hands I jump back in.
I may do this several times while I play at this table. The supposed issue is that I'm "throwing off" the deck or whatever the hell a "serious" player wants to call it.
Or Is this, in reality, harmless? You are being rude in not considering the feelings of others at the table.
However, chances are they have absolutely no idea what cards are coming out and in what order. Your interruption could turn it into the winningest damned shoe of the century.
You just can't know, so unless these people are close friends who will be giving you shit later, don't concern yourself that much with their criticism.
It's not a one-player game and they don't get to dictate how you play. Honestly, when people get that uppity about it, I hope the other person keeps it up and the whiny bastard loses it all.
I have a few friends that love to blow money on blackjack every weekend and think players that play wrong fuck them up.
I have had several arguments with them about how fucking retarded they are. It actually blows my mind how one of them is an electrical engineer and still doesn't seem to get it.
Fortunately my actuary friend is on my side. There was a time I had a full table of pretty serious players, and a woman stayed on 5.
Not like Ace 4, but a legit 5. She had already made a few questionable plays, and the table begins to flip their shit.
What are you doing??? She waves it off and I proceed to bust because of it, but I had three people leave immediately after the hand.
I could see her "strategy" I guess She pulled 2 low cards not 10s so she thought by passing you had a higher chance of getting a 10 and busting.
As a craps player I laugh at the enormous effort blackjack players go through to try and get even odds. As a Chinese, I gotta say you guys have it all backwards.
The gambling IS the entertainment. If you don't want to gamble, why go to a place famous for casinos? I personally prefer Macau to Las Vegas.
Food is better and there is a lot more cultural experiences to be had I am not talking about big shows in Vegas since I am not a fan. I live in Vegas, but it's not all about the gambling and shows.
I personally haven't been to Macau, so I couldn't compare The cultures and standards are completely different. In Las Vegas, it's So other than population, that might also affect the number of people who gamble.
It's not really fair to compare them you're right, but since that's exactly what this thread is about comparing the two i thought I'd at least show some perspective from Vegas' side.
Better for the grind gambler who enjoys comps. Obviously the nightlife is better in Vegas but for us degenerates who spend all night looking at cards or a slot machine it doesn't make much of a difference: Is it really that much better than downtown LV?
I find downtown is where I go when I want to get good food at a reasonable price or nice comps. The strip is for getting drunk and picking up on girls and amazing sights.
Other than that, there are some things that have started to irk me about Vegas. The comps are generally better in Reno but there is a lot less hotels and casinos.
Unless you are at the Silverado-El Dorado-Circus Circus part you have to get a cab or drive to another casino. I can't find that anywhere in Vegas especially over a weekend.
I've never spent much time in Downtown Vegas. Hate to break it to you, but those are all cultural experiences.
Maybe you don't like Elton John, but the fact that you don't doesn't discount it as a cultural experience. You're welcome to prefer the experience in Macau all you want, but to say that Vegas shows don't count as cultural experiences because you don't like them is absurd.
I am not sure why you are so aggressive about this. My personal opinion is as valid as yours. Macau has plenty of shows etc.
I just personally prefer Macau, but if someone prefers Vegas, I realize it is a not a personal affront to me.
I'm not sure if you don't understand or didn't read the post. I'm not saying Vegas is better than Macau, or Macau is better than Vegas -- I didn't express any preference at all.
The entire point of my post was that you can't claim Vegas's attractions don't count as cultural just because you don't like them.
Vegas has plenty of great food, but the Portuguese egg tarts are hard to come by: I would also think there are far fewer gambling regulations in Macau than in the US.
Vegas casinos could be making a lot more money than they already are but there are numerous laws and taxes restricting how much they can make. They just don't a give a shit about environmental regulations, and paying people well so they save money that way.
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